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Nick: Atlas (Registered User)
Date/Time: Tue, 6/1/2004 at 2:46 EDT (Mon, 5/31/2004 at 22:46 PST)
Browser/OS: Microsoft Internet Explorer V5.5 using Windows NT 5.0
In Reply To: A quick calculation:  <Arquen>  [5/31/2004 @ 20:32]  (2/2)
Subject:
Number quibbles.
Message:

I'd question the numbers you came up with. I'm interested to know how you came up with 20,000 for a total population, but I won't quibble with that.

Regarding the relationship of the 500 dwarves to the total population, I don't think that 500 dwarves represents such a large force. At the climax of the Second World War, the US had about 12 million men under arms out of a total population of approximately 140 million. That's about 1 in 12. It also doesn't take into account differences in society, the needs of a comparatively small population to have an even higher percentage of men bear arms nor any dwarven cultural factors that could make every male a warrior to a certain degree.

Also, I'd guess that your estimation of the dwarves' strength is a bit too clinical. If one just crunches numbers, it might seem that 500 dwarves could fight 10,000 men to a stand-still, but the advantage of numerical superiority increases exponentially. One skilled fighter may be able to hold off two opponents, say, but adding a third opponent won't just increase the difficulty of the combat by 50%. It could be much more since the outnumbered fighter may not be able to keep each opponent in view any longer. One might block two simultaneous attacks, one with each arm, but how to block the third attack? And for even greater numbers, this calculation doesn't take into account morale, weapon types, armor, etc. You also base some of your numbers on two individuals who were defending an extremely secure fortress, which gives them a tremendous advantage when compared to combat in the open.

I'd agree that 500 dwarves will "box above their weight" quite a bit, but not quite so much as all that.

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